The 20% CAGR System Comes to Substack
Why I’m sharing the algorithm that beat the 2022 crash — and your first systematic ETF signals for March.
Hello, and welcome to MarketFighter!
Most investors are fighting a losing battle. They fight the 24-hour news cycle. They fight “expert” predictions. They fight their own psychological impulses: greed, fear, bias, and FOMO.
Research shows that between 80% and 90% of all retail investors lose money in the stock market. This is staggering, considering that simply holding a market-wide index returns 7–9% annually if you hold it long enough.
The Breaking Point
A late night in February 2021, I found a way to beat the system. For years, I had fought the same fight, struggling just to keep pace with general market returns.
Real change began to materialize when I started researching trading systems, algorithms, and systems design. I wanted to build a strategy that:
Could beat the market by at least 5% annually over a long-term horizon.
Would not experience drawdowns as deep as the general market during crashes.
Would be simple to trade for a regular retail investor.
Would only require action once a month.
Would be completely systematic, eliminating emotional decision-making.
Would prove its worth consistently over 25 years of market data.
The Quantitative Proof
To be honest, when I found the solution and the backtest results first materialized, I approached them with extreme skepticism. I spent months trying to "break" the system or find data errors. I didn't want a black box. I wanted a repeatable, logical edge.
The system consists of just a few basic momentum rules. I will elaborate on why this works in later posts, but for now, I want to share the historical results. These figures represent a 25-year commitment to momentum logic:
Annual outperformance vs. MSCI World (2000–2025):
10.48%Worst year of outperformance:
-2.15% (2012)Best year of outperformance:
29.11% (2022)Worst year of absolute return:
-10.33% (2002)Best year of absolute return:
37.79% (2009)Annual absolute return (last 10 years):
20.79%
These results are remarkably consistent, and the risk-adjusted returns are beyond anything I have ever seen. This is not just a backtest—I have invested the majority of my personal funds using this system since 2021, and I can tell you that it continues to shine here in early 2026.
The plan for MarketFighter
Having tested this over a five-year period, I am now ready to share it with the world. I’ve moved the MarketFighter blog and domain to Substack to deliver monthly trading signals to anyone who wants to follow the same system.
By moving to Substack, I hope to build a community of "MarketFighters" who value logic over hype, evidence over emotion, and probability over "hot tips."
As with any investment, I cannot guarantee that future performance will match the past. You must judge for yourself whether you believe these simple momentum patterns will continue to work. What I can provide are the monthly signals. At the beginning of each month, I will publish a post specifying exactly which ETFs to own for the coming month.
The system is simple. It consists of two groups of ETFs: Factors and Sectors. Most months, the system will suggest one ETF from each group. On rare occasions it will move to cash, and suggest investing in none of them or just one of them.
I promise to give you more details in coming posts!
The March 2026 signals
For the coming month of March 2026, the MarketFighter system will hold the following positions, equally weighted:
THE FACTOR ALLOCATION (50%):
MSCI Europe Enhanced Value
THE SECTOR ALLOCATION (50%):
S&P 500 Energy Sector
US investors can implement the signal by holding these ETFs:
IVLU ticker (ISIN: US46435G4091)
XLE ticker (ISIN: US81369Y5069)
European investors can implement the signal by holding these ETFs:
IEVL ticker (ISIN: IE00BQN1K901)
QDVF ticker (ISIN: IE00B42NKQ00)
Hold the two positions until you receive the next signal from the MarketFighter system, when we reach April. Don’t forget to subscribe for more details on the system and for future trading signals!