Hi MarketFighter, like your strategy. Is it a problem if i trade one of the EU ETFs in Italy instead of on Xetra if my broker doesn't offer the Xetra option? Also, the volumes can be low on some of the EU ETfs on Xetra, which might be a issue if one wants to invest a more significant sum and you need to switch once a month? How do you view that?
Hi Lucas. It shouldn't matter which exchange you use. What matters is just the underlying index, if you want to follow the strategy.
And you're right about the volumes on Xetra. I trade the ETFs there myself, and I do have to be a bit patient sometimes. It hasn't been a problem to complete the trades, though. It seems there's some sort of marker-maker to make sure enough shares are always available for selling and buying.
Hi MarketFighter. I like your strategy. I tried to duplicate with Etfreplay site but can't seem to get a better CAGR or Sharpe Ratio than pure SPY. I'm using 6 month+12 month lookback relative strength. I'm using USA tickers, monthly rotation.
You will of course see different returns without the specific lookback I'm using. Also, comparing to SPY is different from comparing to the world index, as the S&P 500 has massively outperformed during the period from 2009 to 2025. I like to keep the strategy global, as nobody knows if US stocks will continue to outperform or reverse to the mean :-) Finally, you will have worse drawdowns without the proprietary drawdown protection layer I'm adding.
But still, even with these limitations you should be able to get a positive alpha over long time horizons. What was your process for backtesting the sector basket and the factor basket and then combining them? And what was the time period for your backtest? Just asking out of curiosity 😊
Yes, it's likely your proprietary drawdown strategy makes a big difference. ETFREPLAY uses total return ETF data. For relative strength selection, I used 50% 6-month/50% 12-month lookback period to choose the top sector and top factor. Perhaps other timeframes work better. For the 10 year period, I did get slightly better Sharpe .73 vs .65 using VT as the benchmark.
For drawdown, with ETFREPLAY, it goes to cash if the top sector/factor is below its own 10-month moving average. Yours is probably more effective than that.
Hi MarketFighter, like your strategy. Is it a problem if i trade one of the EU ETFs in Italy instead of on Xetra if my broker doesn't offer the Xetra option? Also, the volumes can be low on some of the EU ETfs on Xetra, which might be a issue if one wants to invest a more significant sum and you need to switch once a month? How do you view that?
Hi Lucas. It shouldn't matter which exchange you use. What matters is just the underlying index, if you want to follow the strategy.
And you're right about the volumes on Xetra. I trade the ETFs there myself, and I do have to be a bit patient sometimes. It hasn't been a problem to complete the trades, though. It seems there's some sort of marker-maker to make sure enough shares are always available for selling and buying.
Hi MarketFighter. I like your strategy. I tried to duplicate with Etfreplay site but can't seem to get a better CAGR or Sharpe Ratio than pure SPY. I'm using 6 month+12 month lookback relative strength. I'm using USA tickers, monthly rotation.
Thanks, I'm glad you like it!
You will of course see different returns without the specific lookback I'm using. Also, comparing to SPY is different from comparing to the world index, as the S&P 500 has massively outperformed during the period from 2009 to 2025. I like to keep the strategy global, as nobody knows if US stocks will continue to outperform or reverse to the mean :-) Finally, you will have worse drawdowns without the proprietary drawdown protection layer I'm adding.
But still, even with these limitations you should be able to get a positive alpha over long time horizons. What was your process for backtesting the sector basket and the factor basket and then combining them? And what was the time period for your backtest? Just asking out of curiosity 😊
Yes, it's likely your proprietary drawdown strategy makes a big difference. ETFREPLAY uses total return ETF data. For relative strength selection, I used 50% 6-month/50% 12-month lookback period to choose the top sector and top factor. Perhaps other timeframes work better. For the 10 year period, I did get slightly better Sharpe .73 vs .65 using VT as the benchmark.
For drawdown, with ETFREPLAY, it goes to cash if the top sector/factor is below its own 10-month moving average. Yours is probably more effective than that.
Thanks for the great work!
Thanks for creating this, a very useful list and does well to make sense of the endless world of tickers. Especially for indecies.
I might create one with all the amusing tickers out there. FAT and H20 comes to mind for the fast food brand owner and Water ETF respectively 😂
Thanks for your comment! The ETF market does indeed seem endless.
That list sounds like great fun 😄