Hello. Do you have the previous dataset of ETF choices for the last e.g 12 months as l am new to your service and would like to learn more from your history of success.
May I ask a question since you have not been into cash during 2026. Is it possible to be 50% in cash per each leg (factor or sector) or do you go either 0 or 100% cash in the portfolio assuming we where to have a bit less crazy strong stock market going forward so to speak ;-)
The system can go 50% cash only in the rare case that one of the “legs” go to cash, and the other one doesn’t.
For the sake of simplicity, there’s no “partial” positioning across the allocations. Each of them are either 0 or 100. But I guess nothing prevents you from making your own adaptation if you want to reduce your allocation below 100% in some periods.
Hello. I am crafting out my own model similar to yours and have started to program a solution. For comparison purposes would it be possible to have some 2025 data of monthly etf selections based on your model choices.
I thought a comparison could lead to some interesting discussions here on Substack.
Hello, I'm new here and plan on trying out your strategy as I really like it. Is it too late for me to enter on these 2 etfs for this month? Yesterday had a big sell-off so it may present a decent opportunity to get in.
Also, in the event of a drawdown event, how quickly does this system identify a rotation out of the etfs and is it communicated quickly here?
It's important to understand that this is a long-term strategy, and not intended for temporary use. Sticking to it during ups and downs is much more important than the exact entry point. And yes, you might get a cheaper entry on Monday than on 1st of June :)
It's not a quick in-and-out system. It has not been outside the market since early 2009. It only exits during extended declines, which means it also held through during Covid in 2020 for instance.
In the event of an exit (going to cash) it will be part of the monthly rotation, and I will communicate it before the market opening on the first trading day :)
That’s a great question, which I didn’t address in this signal post (I did in some of the previous ones).
The system and the results are all based on a strict 50/50 allocation, but trading fees can also play a role. It will not “break” by deviating from the 50/50 allocation, but the outcome will be slightly different.
Personally, I have fairly high trading costs, so I mostly rebalance when adding new money to the system anyway.
The best-performing ETF over the last 12 months within the "factor ETF list" is VLUE, which matches your conclusion.
However, within the "sector ETF list", the best performer over the same period is XLK (Information Technology), not XLE (Energy) as indicated in your analysis. Could you please clarify why your result differs?
XLE was down in May compared to the MSCI World Index (based on May 1 open and May 29 close). In fact, it had the worst performance of any of the sector ETFs in May. The only one that outperformed the MSCI was XLK. This seems contrary to your goals.
Unfortunately the system can't predict the future ;-) It's based on probability, utilizing the relative momentum effect. There are lots of months where the strategy underperforms. But by sticking to it for the long run, I have achieved market-beating returns.
You are right that Energy underperformed in May. Meanwhile, the factor allocation (US Value) did extremely well. By simply combining the two, the strategy outperformed the market in May.
Hi, since there is no change on the recommended tickers, is it reasonable to allocate some additional funds on them ?
That’s what I do myself everytime I have additional funds 😊
Hello. Do you have the previous dataset of ETF choices for the last e.g 12 months as l am new to your service and would like to learn more from your history of success.
Kind regards /Marcus
I will publish an updated performance report within a few days including a list of ETF choices and their returns for each month. Stay tuned.
Thanks MF! :-)
May I ask a question since you have not been into cash during 2026. Is it possible to be 50% in cash per each leg (factor or sector) or do you go either 0 or 100% cash in the portfolio assuming we where to have a bit less crazy strong stock market going forward so to speak ;-)
You’re welcome ☺️
The system can go 50% cash only in the rare case that one of the “legs” go to cash, and the other one doesn’t.
For the sake of simplicity, there’s no “partial” positioning across the allocations. Each of them are either 0 or 100. But I guess nothing prevents you from making your own adaptation if you want to reduce your allocation below 100% in some periods.
Hello. I am crafting out my own model similar to yours and have started to program a solution. For comparison purposes would it be possible to have some 2025 data of monthly etf selections based on your model choices.
I thought a comparison could lead to some interesting discussions here on Substack.
Best regards. 😀
Look at all trading signals for lqst 12 months
Hello, I'm new here and plan on trying out your strategy as I really like it. Is it too late for me to enter on these 2 etfs for this month? Yesterday had a big sell-off so it may present a decent opportunity to get in.
Also, in the event of a drawdown event, how quickly does this system identify a rotation out of the etfs and is it communicated quickly here?
Hello!
It's important to understand that this is a long-term strategy, and not intended for temporary use. Sticking to it during ups and downs is much more important than the exact entry point. And yes, you might get a cheaper entry on Monday than on 1st of June :)
It's not a quick in-and-out system. It has not been outside the market since early 2009. It only exits during extended declines, which means it also held through during Covid in 2020 for instance.
In the event of an exit (going to cash) it will be part of the monthly rotation, and I will communicate it before the market opening on the first trading day :)
Since value outperformed energy, should we rebalance?
That’s a great question, which I didn’t address in this signal post (I did in some of the previous ones).
The system and the results are all based on a strict 50/50 allocation, but trading fees can also play a role. It will not “break” by deviating from the 50/50 allocation, but the outcome will be slightly different.
Personally, I have fairly high trading costs, so I mostly rebalance when adding new money to the system anyway.
Thankyou very much, it's a good strategy.
Thanks, I’m glad you like it! 👍
The best-performing ETF over the last 12 months within the "factor ETF list" is VLUE, which matches your conclusion.
However, within the "sector ETF list", the best performer over the same period is XLK (Information Technology), not XLE (Energy) as indicated in your analysis. Could you please clarify why your result differs?
Hi! The system is not just a 12-month lookback check. The details of the algorithm is proprietary but I have described most of it in this article: https://www.marketfighter.com/p/my-investment-approach-that-outperformed
XLE was down in May compared to the MSCI World Index (based on May 1 open and May 29 close). In fact, it had the worst performance of any of the sector ETFs in May. The only one that outperformed the MSCI was XLK. This seems contrary to your goals.
Unfortunately the system can't predict the future ;-) It's based on probability, utilizing the relative momentum effect. There are lots of months where the strategy underperforms. But by sticking to it for the long run, I have achieved market-beating returns.
You are right that Energy underperformed in May. Meanwhile, the factor allocation (US Value) did extremely well. By simply combining the two, the strategy outperformed the market in May.