I am also following along and started with a small amount following your strategy, I love the simplicity behind your strategy. I was wondering, two things firstly how good is it at moving to cash during fall or downturns you mentioned that it does recommend that from time to time and also if the look back period is only a month how does it form in the worst months of a recession? What are the signals used to recommend moving to cash in that situation?
At this stage I'm just following along, but ironically I have been substantially in XLE (and XES). I read your recommendation last night and checked the chart. I could see it's down about 6% and wondered if this was the start of a decline with America looking to withdraw. I was interested to see how your strategy would perform in the volitile market. But sentiment has swung yet again, and it looks like oil is set to open with some push behind it. So it turns out it could have been the ideal time to buy 😁
Yeah, that’s the thing with opinions, feelings and sentiment. It tends to become noise that drags us in the wrong direction. It can take some time to get used to simply following a system and disregard all other inputs in situations like these, but in the long run it usually pays off! 😊
Your system caught the energy signal the same way insurance underwriters caught the Hormuz risk — by following the data instead of the narrative. The difference is the data tells you what's moving, but not why. The structural bid underneath energy right now isn't momentum — it's a 3% to 25% index weighting gap, a war-risk insurance market that's already pricing supply disruption, and portfolios that dismantled their natural energy hedge over two decades. That's not a one-month signal.
I am also following along and started with a small amount following your strategy, I love the simplicity behind your strategy. I was wondering, two things firstly how good is it at moving to cash during fall or downturns you mentioned that it does recommend that from time to time and also if the look back period is only a month how does it form in the worst months of a recession? What are the signals used to recommend moving to cash in that situation?
At this stage I'm just following along, but ironically I have been substantially in XLE (and XES). I read your recommendation last night and checked the chart. I could see it's down about 6% and wondered if this was the start of a decline with America looking to withdraw. I was interested to see how your strategy would perform in the volitile market. But sentiment has swung yet again, and it looks like oil is set to open with some push behind it. So it turns out it could have been the ideal time to buy 😁
Yeah, that’s the thing with opinions, feelings and sentiment. It tends to become noise that drags us in the wrong direction. It can take some time to get used to simply following a system and disregard all other inputs in situations like these, but in the long run it usually pays off! 😊
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Your system caught the energy signal the same way insurance underwriters caught the Hormuz risk — by following the data instead of the narrative. The difference is the data tells you what's moving, but not why. The structural bid underneath energy right now isn't momentum — it's a 3% to 25% index weighting gap, a war-risk insurance market that's already pricing supply disruption, and portfolios that dismantled their natural energy hedge over two decades. That's not a one-month signal.