Trading Signal: April 2026
Revealing which two ETFs the systematic MarketFighter strategy is moving into this month.
It’s time for the monthly allocation change. As March came to a close, the system has now calculated the momentum data, and the selection for April is ready.
Before the first market opening of each month I send out the trading signal provided by the systematic monthly rotation strategy. The signal tells us which two ETFs the system will move into for the coming month.
If you’re just here for the signal, feel free to scroll down to find it! 👇
First time here? Check out these links:
➡️ The quick introduction
➡️ The detailed breakdown of the strategy
March was incredible for the strategy
For subscribers who followed along and traded the March signal, this month was a joy. I will put up a full performance report for March during the coming week, but I can already say it has been a pleasure to watch our strategy stay in green while the rest of the market has been in turmoil. I posted this little chart a few days ago:
This kind of outperformance is of course not to be expected every month. Such a large alpha achieved in only one month is out of the ordinary, even for this strategy.
As you might have noticed, it was entirely driven by the US Energy Sector ETF which benefited from the staggering oil prices.
I’m not here to be a macro analyst and I will never attempt to predict anything. If you ask me if this performance in the energy sector will continue, my answer is:
I have absolutely no idea.
My take on the market is entirely data-driven, and I move my money to the areas of the market where the historical probability of outperformance is the highest. This has worked well for more than 25 years, but there have been ups and downs along the way. March was without a doubt in the former category!
Now for the trading signal you have been waiting for…
The April 2026 Signal
For the coming month of April 2026, the MarketFighter strategy will be holding these two positions, equally weighted:
THE FACTOR ALLOCATION (50%):
▶️ MSCI USA Enhanced ValueTHE SECTOR ALLOCATION (50%):
▶️ S&P 500 Energy Sector
US investors can implement the signal by holding these ETFs:
✅ VLUE ticker (ISIN: US46432F3881)
✅ XLE ticker (ISIN: US81369Y5069)
European investors can implement the signal by holding these ETFs:
✅ IUVD ticker (ISIN: IE00BFF5RX68)
✅ QDVF ticker (ISIN: IE00B42NKQ00)
Moving from European Value to US Value
While the sector allocation remains unchanged in Energy, the factor allocation moves from European value stocks and into their American counterpart.
This is the result of a significant performance in the MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index relative to the European index in recent months.
As systematic observers we simply rely on the momentum-based rules to identify the asset with the highest probability of outperformance in the coming month.
Actions and rebalancing
If you are new to the strategy and want to follow along, simply buy and hold the two positions until you receive the next trading signal in your inbox, when we reach May.
If you traded the March signal and want to follow along, it means you will already own an ETF tracking the S&P 500 Energy Sector, which will continue in April. You will also own an ETF tracking the MSCI Europe Enhanced Value Index, which you need to sell, and use the money to buy an ETF tracking the MSCI USA Enhanced Value Index instead, as mentioned above.
The strategy is designed to have an equal 50/50 balance between the two ETFs at the beginning of each month. However, drifting a bit from the 50/50 does not mean the system will break. If your trading fees are low, feel free to rebalance as much as you want, but don’t worry if your positioning moves closer to 60/40 or 40/60.
Don’t forget to subscribe for more information on the MarketFighter strategy and for future trading signals!
Disclaimer: The MarketFighter Strategy is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and the author is not a licensed investment advisor. Investing in ETFs involves significant risk, and past performance is never a guarantee of future results. You are solely responsible for your own trades and financial outcomes. Read the full Disclaimer here.
I am also following along and started with a small amount following your strategy, I love the simplicity behind your strategy. I was wondering, two things firstly how good is it at moving to cash during fall or downturns you mentioned that it does recommend that from time to time and also if the look back period is only a month how does it form in the worst months of a recession? What are the signals used to recommend moving to cash in that situation?
At this stage I'm just following along, but ironically I have been substantially in XLE (and XES). I read your recommendation last night and checked the chart. I could see it's down about 6% and wondered if this was the start of a decline with America looking to withdraw. I was interested to see how your strategy would perform in the volitile market. But sentiment has swung yet again, and it looks like oil is set to open with some push behind it. So it turns out it could have been the ideal time to buy 😁