The Strategy
🔶 What is The MarketFighter Strategy?
It’s a simple, rules-based ETF strategy for long-term investors. Once a month, the model selects two ETFs based on relative price momentum. It then holds them until the next monthly check.
An added drawdown protection layer can trigger a switch to cash during severe, extended market declines.
All rules are based on research of what has historically worked well on the stock market. Execution takes 15 minutes a month, and I’ve been following this strategy myself since March 2021.
🔶 What’s the point of it?
Most investors either stick to index investing or try to beat the market by picking stocks and predicting future outcomes. Very few outperform the market over multiple decades.
I spent 15 years researching market strategies independently before I built this system in early 2021. I have yet to find another strategy with the same level of consistency and risk-adjusted returns over long time horizons.
The goal is simple: higher returns than the index, with high consistency, and with smaller drawdowns during severe crashes.
🔶 Who is this for?
The strategy is for rational investors who want to optimize their chances of higher market returns. It is for those who believe in math, research and probability theory, more than opinion, prediction, and gut-feelings.
Most professional Wall Street fund managers underperform the market. Yet, many retail investors try to play the same game.
This strategy does not require any ongoing market analysis or news watching. All it takes is 15 minutes a month, which means people with a busy life can use this approach too.
🔶 Who is it not for?
If you are in the rare group of people who can consistently pick winning stocks and outperform the market this way, you will not need this strategy.
If you generally have strong opinions on where the market is heading and what the near future holds, it will be difficult for you to stay disciplined.
If your account is very small, it will probably not pay off.
🔶 How does the strategy work?
It’s entirely systematic and rules-based. There’s no human decision-making or any opinions involved, as it only looks at monthly price data. Once a month, the system does the following:
It runs The Ketchup Rule check to determine if we should be invested or move to cash for the coming month. This is the drawdown protection layer.
Unless we moved to cash, it picks the strongest ETF from a basket of 8 factor-focused ETFs, based on the predefined rules.
From a basket of 7 sector-focused ETFs it does the same and picks the strongest. Each selected ETF gets 50% of the portfolio.
Combining the three strategies for drawdowns, factor rotation, and sector rotation creates a diversified approach that historically beat the market with high consistency.
🔶 What does the strategy invest in?
Only in equity ETFs. No bonds, gold, crypto or commodities, and no leverage or shorting. The strategy holds between 0 and 2 ETFs at a time, but most of the time it’s 2. In the backtest, it was invested in the market in 93% of all months.
The list of ETFs is predefined and comes from a universe of 15 factor and sector indices. You can see the full list here: The Watchlist.
🔶 What is The Ketchup Rule?
It’s the drawdown protection layer of the strategy. It looks at the market index’s monthly closing prices over the past 12 months, and moves to cash when negative momentum has built up to levels that historically preceded a capitulation phase.
It won’t protect against very fast crashes, like 1987 or the COVID crash in 2020. In the backtest, it last moved to cash in 2008-2009. It hasn’t triggered since I started trading it myself in March 2021.
You can read more about it here: The Ketchup Rule.
🔶 Why does the strategy work?
It was built on research to identify what has historically worked with high consistency. The most important ingredient is utilization of momentum effects. These are well documented anomalies, widely attributed to human behavior which haven’t changed across 200 years of market history.
🔶 Will the strategy stop working if many people follow it?
The ETFs in the universe follow indexes which are very large and highly liquid, so subscribers following the signal won’t move the underlying stock prices.
That being said, I expect the level of outperformance may be lower going forward. Luck plays a role in any backtest, and excess returns can potentially shrink as more investors use similar approaches.
🔶 Can I use leveraged ETFs?
I don’t recommend it. I have not tested the strategy with leveraged ETFs, and leverage can amplify losses significantly, especially in volatile markets.
🔶 Can I have your code or algorithm?
No. I have explained the concept, the input data and the investment universe, and the research it builds on. The exact rules and parameters are my proprietary research. Instead, I publish the output of the algorithm every month, so paid subscribers receive the same trading signal as I use myself.
Performance and track record
🔶 How much of the track record was backtested?
The results from January 2000 to February 2021 are backtested. This means I applied the same rules to historical index data. Since March 2021, I have traded the strategy live with my own money.
Since March 2026, I’ve also published the trading signals and performance reports every month in this newsletter.
🔶 Which benchmark and currency do you use?
My primary benchmark is the MSCI World Index, measured in EUR, because I’m a Euro-based investor. I also compare with the S&P 500. All numbers are based on index price returns, before taxes and trading fees, and measured in EUR unless otherwise stated.
If you invest in USD or any other currency, your numbers will differ because of currency movements. I have written a full comparison for US-based investors here: The strategy in USD vs. the S&P 500.
🔶 Why is the S&P 500 not your primary benchmark?
Because the S&P 500 only covers US-listed stocks, while my strategy uses both US and European stocks.
The S&P 500 stocks do however make up ~70% of the MSCI World Index. This means currency changes often account for larger differences than the choice of benchmark index.
🔶 Why do you say “25 of 26 years” in some places and “22 of 26 years” in others?
The numbers refer to different benchmarks.
From 2000 to 2025, the strategy outperformed the MSCI World Index (measured in EUR) in 25 of 26 calendar years.
Over the same period, it outperformed the S&P 500 (measured in USD) in 22 of the 26 calendar years. Both figures are backtested until February 2021.
🔶 Do your numbers include fees and taxes?
No. All numbers are before taxes and trading fees. Net results will depend on the broker, the choice of ETFs, the tax situation, the currency, and the exact execution of the trades.
🔶 Why don’t my own backtest results match yours?
I often receive this question. The primary reason is simple: I haven’t published the exact rules. These are my proprietary logic based on 15 years of research. Without the exact rules, it’s not possible to reproduce my exact results.
🔶 How can I verify your track record?
Every trading signal is published before the market opens on the first trading day of the month, and every post is dated in the archive. A performance report follows each month and is free to read: Performance reports
Subscribing
🔶 What do I get as a free subscriber?
All my educational articles, research and strategic insights, and the monthly performance report for my strategy. Most of what I write is free, so you can judge the strategy before you decide to pay.
🔶 What do I get as a paid subscriber?
Full access to follow the strategy. This involves the monthly trading signal before the market opens on the first trading day of the month. This includes the two selected ETFs for the month, as well as the signal from The Ketchup Rule for drawdown protection.
On top of this, you get full access to Member Q&As, signal archives and occasional other paid-only posts.
🔶 What’s the price and how do I sign up?
Monthly plan: $49
Annual plan: $399 (save 32%)
Prices include VAT/taxes and are shown in your local currency at checkout.
🔶 Where do I get the best price?
You get the best price by opening the link above in a web browser.
If you purchase directly inside the Substack app on an iPhone/iPad, Apple will increase the price (often by around 30%) to include their fee.
Buying via the website (either at Substack.com or MarketFighter.com) gives you the same full access inside the app, but without the extra fee.
🔶 Will there be campaigns and discounts?
No. I believe in setting a fair and transparent price that readers can count on. I will never raise prices just to lower them for a campaign, and I don’t want readers to experience a sudden price drop after they’ve made the purchase.
For now, I have no plans to lower the prices or to make special offers for Black Friday, for instance. What you see is what you get.
🔶 Is there a free trial?
No. The trading signal is the core of the paid subscription, but all my research and every performance report are free to read.
🔶 Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. You can cancel in your Substack account settings at any time, and you keep access until the end of your billing period.
Following the strategy in practice
🔶 How easy is it to follow the strategy?
If you have a standard brokerage account and 15 minutes a month, you can follow it. You don’t need to follow the news, study businesses or analyze the market. Just open the monthly trading signal and buy or sell a maximum of two ETFs. Then do nothing until next month.
🔶 When do I receive the trading signal?
On or before the first trading day of each month, before the European markets open. It arrives by email and in the Substack app. A performance report for the previous month follows a few days later.
🔶 What if the signal doesn’t change from last month?
Then you don’t need to do anything. Unchanged months are common, and that’s by design: the strategy is built to keep trading costs low and avoid trading more than necessary.
🔶 When do you execute the trade?
My own results are based on trading on the first trading day of the month. Not at any specific time of the day, but simply when time allows, and when the market is liquid.
It’s possible to do the trades after this day as well, but personally I wouldn’t enter the strategy more than a week into the month. In that case I would simply wait for the next monthly signal.
🔶 Which broker should I use?
Any broker that offers the ETFs works. I have collected the specific ETFs for both the European and US markets, including tickers and ISIN codes, in The Watchlist.
In Europe, the ISIN code is the safest way to find the right ETF, since tickers differ between exchanges.
Markets, currencies and taxes
🔶 How can I follow the strategy in the UK?
UK investors can use the European ETFs listed on the London Stock Exchange. The Watchlist contains a list for the European market, and if you copy the ISIN codes from that list, you should be able to find them all listed in GBP on the London Stock Exchange.
🔶 Can I follow the strategy from anywhere in the world?
If you have access to ETFs tracking the right (or similar) indices, you can follow the strategy.
The Watchlist has two lists: UCITS ETFs for European investors, and US-listed ETFs for US investors and most other regions.
🔶 Why are my returns different from yours?
This mostly happens because of currency. I report all numbers in EUR, so a USD-based investor will see different returns in months when the dollar moves against the euro. Fees, taxes, trading time, and differences between ETF implementations can play a role as well.
🔶 How will the strategy affect my taxes?
I can’t give tax advice, and the tax rules are extremely different from country to country. In Denmark where I live, we pay ongoing capital gains tax every year on ETFs. Yet, it has significantly outperformed a buy-and-hold index.
I know that tax-advantaged accounts such as IRA or Roth IRA in the US, and ISA in the UK are extremely good fits for this strategy. We don’t have any tax-free accounts in Denmark, but if I had this option, I would of course go for it.
For any other tax related questions, my advice is to consult with a local tax advisor in your home country.
About me and the newsletter
🔶 Who is the author behind MarketFighter?
I’m a former software engineer with a lifelong obsession with beating the markets. I have invested since 2004, and my background in data and engineering lets me see the market through a different lens than typical financial analysts.
I live in Denmark with my wife and our two sons. In April 2026 I was able to leave my IT career, thanks to my investment strategy. Now I can focus on sharing my strategy in this newsletter and living off my investment returns.
🔶 Do you trade the strategy with your own money?
Yes. Since March 2021, the majority of my family’s funds have been invested using the exact strategy I document in this newsletter. For five years I did this without telling anyone except my closest family.
🔶 Do you have any financial background?
No. I have no formal financial education. My knowledge relies on my own lifelong obsession with the markets, investing and studying it since 2004.
I have the perspective of a rationally thinking engineer. Not that of a financially educated market analysts. This means my approach is different, and so have my results been.
🔶 Do you provide any advice or recommendations?
No. Everything I write is for informational and educational purposes only. I’m not a licensed financial advisor, and I don’t make personal recommendations.
If you choose to follow my strategy, you take full responsibility for the outcome. Past returns are no guarantee of future returns.
🔶 Do you have any conflicts of interest?
I hold the same ETFs that the strategy selects. To avoid trading ahead of subscribers, I send the trading signal before the market opens and place my own trades afterwards, on the same trading day. The ETFs are large and highly liquid, so subscribers’ trades should not affect their prices.
🔶 What is your long term plan with MarketFighter?
There are never any guarantees in life, but as long as the strategy continues to do well, and there’s a demand for following it, I will continue delivering this service. I’m only 41, so this can hopefully go on for decades to come.
If demand keeps growing, I might include partners at some point, but for now, this is my job, my passion, and part of my income. I’m not going anywhere.
🔶 What if I have questions that weren’t answered here?
I’m always happy to help. Send me a direct message on Substack. I’m open to questions, feedback and collaboration. Thank you for being part of the journey!
Disclaimer: The MarketFighter Strategy is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and the author is not a licensed investment advisor. Investing in ETFs involves significant risk, and past performance is never a guarantee of future results. You are solely responsible for your own trades and financial outcomes. Read the full Disclaimer here.